Are JWs able to predict future events?

[Guest Kurt]

JWs are not prophets.

 

 

THE “MILLIONS CAMPAIGN”

 

[AveragePub]

Nope!  Just read the bible.  God loves you.

[James Thomas Rook Jr.]

Not so far ...batting zero.

[Evacuated]

Misleading question really. Define predict.

[AveragePub]

The bible contains prophecy.  We know the big picture and the result.  Not clue as to intervening events.

[JW Insider]

10 hours ago, Eoin Joyce said:

Misleading question really. Define predict.

This topic recently started (again) over here:

In that conversation @James Thomas Rook Jr. said: "The Society has NEVER been right about ANYTHING they predicted .. which is why "new light" is discovered AFTER the facts become evident.  I remember as a preteen boy accompanying my Mom to Assemblies where the "King of the North" and "Gog of Magog" were discussed . . . ."

@Eoin Joyce included this in his response: "As JTR laments above, prophecy has it's many interpreters, but no there is no truer statement than that found in our Insight Vol 2 p.1141: "full discernment of the prophecy’s application may have to await God’s due time for its being carried out."  This is in complete harmony with Jehovah's own word at 2Pet.1:20: "For you know this first, that no prophecy of Scripture springs from any private interpretation."

In the same conversation @Aaron Mathewson mentioned a couple of items that he believed were "predicted" correctly, when he said: 

"Saying nothing has ever come true is completely false. Early in the history of the org there were incorrect assumptions, some of which partly made it into print. But after they saw the need and started basing their "prophecies" on scripture and only predicting what was obvious from the Bible, everything they have said has come true. They knew something bad would happen in 1914, and warned about Hitler's years before he tried to conquer the world, and they also predicted this ban in Russia over 10 years ago."

In my response in that same conversation, I tried to put a definition to what kind of predictions we were talking about. I assumed it was something like this: 

I think this is why it's actually very true that we've never gotten anything correct (yet) when trying to make a prediction based on prophecy. . . . to put a time limit on [Biblical/prophetic] events, or predict that [such] events will happen within a certain time frame, or even try to tie a Biblical event to a particular entity in our current time frame." 

I don't know if these definitions work. Perhaps, Eoin, you have a workable definition of the term "predict" in the context of making predictions based on our understanding of Bible prophecy. 

[Evacuated]

4 hours ago, JW Insider said:

definition of the term "predict"

predict: "say or estimate that (a specified thing) will happen in the future or will be a consequence of something."

However, although the word "prophesy" is offered as a synonym for the word "predict", I would see this definition as inadequate when relating to the word prophesy as it is used in connection with Jehovah God (Is.46:10),  or anyone to whom the words at 2Pet 1:21 correctly apply.

I submit that the words of 2Pet 1:21 actually cannot apply to any of the so-called "modern day" Jehovah's Witnesses, in fact, specifically, no one since the apostle John (although it is conceivable that a Christian with the spiritual gift of prophecy may have outlived him for a short time).

So, with that out of the way, and on the basis of the definition provided above, I would say in answer to the question originally posted (which is hopelessly general), quite simply "Yes. As able as anyone else is." 

4 hours ago, JW Insider said:

the term "predict" in the context of making predictions based on our understanding of Bible prophecy. 

Now this opens up the question and may actually need it's own thread. Take care to phrase it specifically!  

[JW Insider]

15 hours ago, Eoin Joyce said:

Now this opens up the question and may actually need it's own thread. Take care to phrase it specifically!  

Threads like that have been started by others and I didn't want to be the one to start a new one. I don't think that the Watch Tower Society needs to be beat up any further on the topic, if the point is merely to rehash old material that embarrasses us. The only way in which the question still has relevance is when someone today uses the modern day history of Jehovah's Witnesses in order to make claims that aren't true. Sometimes this is done by opposers, but we don't want to be guilty of making untrue claims, too. 

The basic idea of the question in the context of previous comments has always been about whether the Watch Tower Society has ever made a correct prediction based on their understanding of Bible prophecy at the time a prediction was made. For this definition, all we have to do is takes Eoin's dictionary contribution and add a contextual limitation to it.

15 hours ago, Eoin Joyce said:

predict: "say or estimate that (a specified thing) will happen in the future or will be a consequence of something."

A prediction, in reference to the Watch Tower Society, would be any time that the WTS has published a statement or estimate about a specific thing (or consequence of something) that would happen during a specified range of time in the future. Whenever such a prediction has been made, has it ever happened as predicted? In other words, have the Watch Tower publications ever yet made a prediction that came true?

I think that many persons on this forum have seen the WTS historical videos, especially the following two hour long videos:

• Jehovah's Witnesses—Faith in Action, Part 1: Out of Darkness  https://tv.jw.org/#en/mediaitems/VODOrgMovies/pub-ivfa1_x_VIDEO 
• Jehovah's Witnesses—Faith in Action, Part 2: Let the Light Shine https://tv.jw.org/#en/mediaitems/VODOrgMovies/pub-ivfa2_x_VIDEO

In those videos, as I remember them, there are only 2 predictions noted that were expressed as evidences that Jehovah's holy spirit was truly with the leadership of the Watch Tower Society. One of them is featured prominently in Part 1, and one of them is featured prominently in Part 2.

In Part 1, from about the 40:15 time-mark to the 45:00 time-mark, the subject is "1914 -- A Marked Year. " After making clear that this was a prediction made by Russell starting in 1876, two members of the Governing Body come into the video where Brother Losch says (at 44:05 to 44:30) that "it enhanced their trust that Jehovah was using Brother Russell and his friends to explain truth to others." Brother Morris adds (around 44:30) that "it was significant that they could pinpoint that year. That's phenomenal!" That was the entire point and concluding words of the section: that it was predicted to the year, and that this was phenomenal!

In Part 2, from about the 15:50 time-mark to the 19:05 time-mark in the video, we hear about the prediction in 1942 that the League of Nations would rise again proving that a time of peace was coming. This prophecy sets up the section: "Taught by Jehovah." It's the prophecy about how WW II would not end in Armageddon, but that there would be a time of peace, (and therefore a time of potential expansion) based on the correct understanding and prediction that the League of Nations would arise again after going down into the abyss. (Revelation 17:8) Two members of the current GB (Morris & Jackson) come into the video and explain how this prediction came true after 1942, when the United Nations took the place of the old League of Nations in 1945.

Both of these same predictions have been used together in later commentary from the Society. I think that they are considered to be the only actual cases of true predictions in the Watch Tower publications. 

I don't believe the Watch Tower publications ever predicted the rise of Hitler, although after a very brief period of support they exposed him for what he was. I don't believe that the Society ever predicted the ban in Russia over 10 years ago, either. The 1914 prediction has been discussed already, and it's clear that all the predictions the WTS made about it were wrong except for a correction made to the 1874 to 1914 timeline in the year 1904. Until then it was believed that a time of trouble must begin before 1914 and not after it. But it was realized that this would result in a harvest that was cut short due to the fact that at least one or more years' worth of tribulation would be expected prior to 1914. Some features of this impending tribulation were expected around 1910. So these "several months" of tribulation that were originally expected to precede the end of all national systems, and all religious systems, and all the world's institutions -- this expectation was moved to a short period just following 1914 and lasting at least until October 1915. Armageddon was still to start in 1914, although 1914 was now expanded to a 12-month period running from October 1914 to October 1915.

With respect to Hitler, of course, the  Governing Body's (Rutherford's) initially praised Hitler and made statements to the effect that Hitler's ideals were something like a political expression of the same ideal Kingdom of God that Witnesses stood for. So I don't believe this coexists with any predictions about Hitler that were true. 

I don't know what anyone might mean by claiming that this current Russian persecution was predicted. If this is in relation to the "king of the north" then the idea is not correct, anyway, per the more recent admissions made in the publications. 

I think the only exceptions the Watchtower can claim to the track record of "batting zero" are the following, then:

•  the 1904 adjustment to the teaching about the nature of the 40-year harvest period starting in 1874
• the idea that they predicted that the League of Nations would rise up again sometime after 1942

Unfortunately, both these claims have proved to be misleading in several ways.

[Evacuated]

57 minutes ago, JW Insider said:

A prediction, in reference to the Watch Tower Society, would be any time that the WTS has published a statement or estimate about a specific thing (or consequence of something) that would happen during a specified range of time in the future. Whenever such a prediction has been made, has it ever happened as predicted? In other words, have the Watch Tower publications ever yet made a prediction that came true?

There is a danger of become too rigorous in our expectation of detail here. The common definition of "predict" uses the term "estimate", so with this in mind, would we not expect the Governing Body to "roughly calculate or judge the value, number, quantity, or extent of" "a specified thing" or "consequence of something" in connection with an aspect of Biblical teaching?

Also, I think from a doctrinal perspective and in spite of past views to the contrary, we can now safely dispense with the idea that the Governing Body serves as a prophet in the same sense as the inspired prophets of old. And that the application (including estimates) they approve at present would in any way be comparable to the prophets' inspired utterances.

[James Thomas Rook Jr.]

Nothing like getting beat up over and over by people who remember ... it takes a hundred years or more for ONE generation to completely die out, and that remembrance  to be lost ... with the possible exception of Mr. Google.

[Evacuated]

As an example to affirm what I mean by the application of the term prediction according to the common definition as discussed above, there is a reference in the Feb 15 1943 Watchtower, p63-4. Quoting from Bro.N.Knorr's opening address to the first class of the Watchtower Bible (then called) College of Gilead, the following was said:

"There are many places where the witness concerning the Kingdom has not been given to a great extent. The people living in these places are in darkness, held there by religion. In some of these countries, where there are a few witnesses, it is noted that the people of good-will hear readily and would associate themselves with the Lord’s organization, if instructed properly. There must be hundreds and thousands more that could be reached if there were more laborers in the field. By the Lord’s grace, there will be more......................We believe that, true to it's name,a "heap of wltness" will go forth from this place to all parts of the world and that such witness will stand as a monument to the glory of God and that can never be destroyed."

Bro Knorr's use of the expression "hundreds and thousands" might be seized upon by critics as a gross underestimate of the effect of the Gilead missionary program over the years, but it has to be taken in context. This rather archaic idiom,used today mainly for cake decoration, was seemingly of more common usage in the 19th and the earlier part of the 20th Centuries, and would be entirely appropriate to Bro Knorr's vocabulary, (b.1905) and aged about 37 when delivering this discourse. It simply means: "an indefinite but emphatically large number". This is quite in harmony with the idea of an "estimate" or "prediction" being "a rough calculation".

So, if one considers the facts. At the time of the first Gilead missionary class, there was a war raging across much of the world. Despite this 109,794 were able to report their field service. These included the 100 initial students of the Gilead College, now graduated and in the field. Compare the number of publishers for 1943 to the most recent world figure of average number of publishers for 2016 - 8,132,358. More interestingly, 260 publishers were reporting field service from 22 congregations located in a number of countries reporting directly to the US Branch in Brooklyn in 1943. The number of publishers in those same countries combined in 2016 was at least 467,000 reporting on average.

Just one more example is Japan. When, in 1951, 40 Gilead missionaries and 200 local publishers attended a convention in Tokyo, Bro Knorr then said that he looked forward to the time when there would be so many native Japanese proclaimers of the Kingdom that it would be hard to search out the missionaries among them. The last count in Japan of the averagie of those publishing in 2016 was 213,818 .

Even without an exhaustive analysis on these figures, it is patently clear to me that the expectation of increase in those responding to the Kingdom message as expressed by Bro.Knorr in representing the Governing Body, adequately fits the definition of the word "predict" and has, unmistakably, been fulfilled.

[JW Insider]

On 4/29/2017 at 10:54 AM, Eoin Joyce said:

Also, I think from a doctrinal perspective and in spite of past views to the contrary, we can now safely dispense with the idea that the Governing Body serves as a prophet in the same sense as the inspired prophets of old. And that the application (including estimates) they approve at present would in any way be comparable to the prophets' inspired utterances.

I'm guessing that @Kurt who worded the thread "Are JW's able to predict future events?" was specifically avoiding the idea that the Governing Body has claimed to serve as a prophet. In fact, his first words were "JWs are not prophets." In the past however, from long before I was baptized until at least a decade afterwards, the faithful and discreet slaved claimed to be a prophet. They also claimed that the organization of Jehovah's Witnesses is indeed a prophet -- and not just a "prophet-like" organization. There has not yet been a direct retraction of this claim. However it has not been repeated since the 1980's as far as I remember. 

But we can't say that it is not still implied. Many articles have been published on the topic of the "faithful and discreet slave" and many of them have in some way connected their function to that of the prophets of old. Comparisons are drawn between respect for the faithful and discreet slave and respect for various named prophets and leaders of Jehovah's people in the past. This is admittedly more subtle, but it creates a belief system that implies that the spirit-directed organization will be able to provide specific direction during the great tribulation which is going to be directly related to direction by the holy spirit. We are told to expect that it is direction that will not necessarily make sense from a rational or logical or human perspective, but that we will need to obey it when the time comes. I think that this type of thinking has obviously already permeated some of the heightened expectations with regard to current world events and Russian suppression. 

If anyone questions that point, I'd be happy to discuss some of that evidence again. However, I think the subject here is about whether anything ever predicted has come true, yet. 

For now, I will merely claim that Watch Tower publications have never yet not made a Bible-prophecy related prediction that has come true yet. Naturally, I am willing to adjust that belief if evidence is forthcoming. And according to your definition of "predict" dozens of specific prophetic things have been predicted with the expectation that they should have already occurred.

I base that belief on evidence from topics that have already been touched upon. This does not mean that future expectations won't turn out to be true, but I do think that it's better to have an understanding of the track record of the past before we stick our neck out and say that we are absolutely sure we know how future events will turn out. I'd say that we don't really know if it's true for a fact that the United Nations is the beast. We have identified it in other ways in the past. We don't know if any particular entity will turn against religion as a whole and leave our organization intact as a single organization. We don't know in what way survivors of the great tribulation will be identified or protected -- whether as a single identified group or as individuals.

We don't really "know" anything that was based on interpretation of prophecy. We don't really know if a generation of the type Jesus spoke of could be "overlapping" or even if Matthew 24 was about our own specific time period. It's a reasonable and rational belief, but it is a prophecy that has been redefined in every generation since it was first prophesied. Our own track record has always shown, through hundreds of changes so far, that all of our past, non-current interpretations of prophecy were based on private interpretation. 

Again, we might have it absolutely right this time. Past performance may have no bearing on future performance as the financial industry is apt to claim as a caveat about putting stock in stocks. 

Survival through this system of things will always turn out to be a matter of "what sort of persons ought we to be." 

On 4/29/2017 at 1:55 PM, Eoin Joyce said:

There must be hundreds and thousands more that could be reached if there were more laborers in the field.

I can't think why anyone would "seize upon" these words and fault Knorr for underestimating hundreds and thousands when it turned out to be millions. Knorr was a very good predictor when it came to logistics. By collecting a lot of data about monthly book and magazine campaigns and by watching how closely the goals were met, and by comparing month-to-month and year-to-year estimates versus actuals, Knorr was able to have the right number of books and magazines in the pipeline at all times. This is why he was such a good factory manager, and it's what he taught Max Larson, then Richard Wheelock and Dean Songer. I'd say that Knorr was an excellent logistical predictor. I've heard that Brother Dean Songer was said to be slightly better, and he kept that job for many years due to his excellent math skills. 

Of course, I'm not considering these types of mundane predictions to be part of the Watch Tower's track record on Bible-based predictions. If Knorr's numbers seemed limited, I doubt that he intended them to be. Rutherford, especially in his later years, had often argued that every assembly was probably going to be the last before Armageddon, and he even argued that the preaching work was done, which is why he argued against Knorr's idea of a missionary school. Rutherford began to argue, as Russell had argued many years before him, that we don't need to "convert" people in every nation, only be a part of providing a "witness" to people of every nation, and Rutherford was sure that this was already accomplished. 

Knorr's tone could have merely been a "hedge" between what he hoped for and what Rutherford had stated, and this might be based on an understanding of Bible prophecy, but I don't remember anyone actually making a prophetic interpretation that would put an upper or lower limit on the numbers that might come in. The video I mentioned earlier made a connection between the League/UN prophecy and a desire for expansion, but I think this is an interpretation made for the recent video. I don't remember anything like it being made at the time.