Blip on the Radar

[Guest]

Hurricanes Irma and Harvey rained on the U.S. economy’s parade in September, causing nonfarm payrolls (Labor Dept. jargon for workers not on farms or in NGOs) to drop by 33,000. 

But what a parade it was. For the last seven years, the U.S. economy added jobs every single month in what was a record march back to health from the Great Recession.

The release blindsided economic forecasters, who were about as accurate as your local weatherman. Estimates pegged job gains at around 80,000 (still much lower than the 12-month average of +170,000), but no one expected the job market to contract. 

For the most part, though, the economic report painted a sunnier picture. Unemployment edged even lower to 4.2% (a record since 2001), while wages continued to rise, up 2.9% YoY.

So it’s pretty clear that the -33,000 figure is more anomaly than anything else—the economy is chugging along just fine.

- Morning Brew