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Tesla Model 3 VIN up to 2639 registered with NHTSA ahead of Q3 report

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All eyes are on Wednesday’s Tesla 3Q earnings report and the expected update by CEO Elon Musk on Model 3 production numbers. One might recall that the California-based electric car maker reported an unremarkable

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in the third quarter, citing “manufacturing bottlenecks” as the reason for missing its original guidance of 1,500 Model units produced by the end of September.

However, despite the downbeat production numbers, Wall St. firm Oppenheimer & Co. documented in a research note sent to investors that Model 3-specific machinery at Tesla’s factory was already operational and vehicles were making their way through the production line. A video shared by Musk showed 

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on the production line in real-time. Oppenheimer linked the production bottleneck to suppliers that failed to meet their delivery time frames.

Now, nearly a month after Model 3 production challenges first surfaced, a query against the National Highway Transportation Safety Administration government site reveals that Tesla Model 3 production may have hit its stride and on the upswing. According to the nhtsa.gov, Tesla has registered 2,639 Model 3 vehicles to date, up from 1,100 or so when the company reported that it had produced 260 Model 3 vehicles. The latest

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that was registered with the NHTSA is 5YJ3E1EA0HF002639.

Based on the rate of incremental increase of Model 3 Vehicle Identification Numbers (VIN) being registered with the NHTSA, data from last week suggests that Tesla is pacing at over 500 Model 3 VINS registered per week. While it’s still difficult to tell what the actual production numbers are for Model 3, we’re able to see an exponential increase in vehicles being registered with the safety administration, possibly suggesting that Tesla is navigating the

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. After all, Musk did reveal on the day following his whiskey and hot dog-fueled 
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that the team has continued into the ~8th circle of production hell.

With reports that a supplier has received notice of their 

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from 5,000 per week to 3,000 per week, it’s expected that Tesla will report production numbers short of Musk’s original guidance. However, given the rapid increase in Model 3 VINs being registered and Musk’s penchant to execute, albeit on an overly optimistic timeline, there’s still high confidence that the underlying fundamentals to achieve Model 3 high volume production are in place. It’s only a matter of time before Model 3 will truly become a mass market vehicle.

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