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Have JWs solved 90% of the child abuse problems plaguing the rest of the world?


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14 hours ago, John Houston said:

I have wondered why this topic has such blow back

This is actually a valid musing. I see the outrage regarding the child abuse issue as an evidence of one of the last sparks of morality in a dying and corrupt civilisation. 

This issue has extraodinary emotive power in many circles. Despite the prevalence of institutionalised wholesale abuse in the form of abortion; confused censorship; inadequate, inconsistent legislation; resistance to proper investigation; recruiting of child-soldiers; human trafficking; inequitable access to food, medicine, education, and whatever else one cares to list, there's nothing so attention grabbing as accusations of child abuse and/or the suggestion that such depraved and appalling behaviour should be tolerated and allowed anywhere.

In the light of the Scripture's presentation of Christians as prime targets of a spiritual enemy, with toxic influence far more dangerous than Novichock, why should we think their institutions would be immune to infiltration by that most insidiously deceptive of all criminals, the child abuser? Or why would individuals within their ranks be any less susceptible to the torrent of living-room piped,  immoral effluent found on the internet? Even a most conservative estimator of this content, Dr. Ogi Ogas, commented "Fourteen per cent of searches and 4% of websites devoted to sex really are very significant numbers, when you stop to ponder it." And then of course , in birth itself there is no religious discrimination in it's apportioning of genetic malfunction.

But that spiritual enemy is expert at fanning sparks of humanity into flames of bigotry and intolerance as he aims his fiery missiles into the unwary and unguarded hearts of hapless men. By means of this issue, he reduces rational, decent humans into prejudiced, unreasonable witch-hunters, clawing at each others throats, trading accusation and insult, deflecting attention to any one but the real enemy, whilst his worm-like minions advance unchecked, the cries of his victims continue, as if unheard.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2017/dec/18/cases-of-child-sexual-abuse-up-31-says-nspcc

https://www.nspcc.org.uk/services-and-resources/research-and-resources/statistics/

http://www.nationalchildrensalliance.org/media-room/media-kit/national-statistics-child-abuse

https://www.statista.com/statistics/639375/number-of-child-abuse-cases-in-the-us/

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This is actually a valid musing. I see the outrage regarding the child abuse issue as an evidence of one of the last sparks of morality in a dying and corrupt civilisation.  This issue has extrao

Allen, Your point should be the same as mine, and it would be a shame (literally) if it is isn't. I understand as well as anyone why you think that a knee-jerk reaction to protect the reputation of th

I love irony ! otherwise that would be an upvote. Hey! that quote is an "Elephant" AllenSmith could chew on !

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6 hours ago, AllenSmith said:

A controversial POST has NO place in, TRUE Christian life, 2 Timothy 2:23-24 therefore, WE are ALL guilty and sinners, defying Christ Words, Matthew 5:22  with the exception of some of us, trying to set the record straight, from those calling themselves “witnesses”. James 4:17, 1 John 3:18

I seriously doubt that the Bible writers were considering 2,000 years into the future, in a world they knew NOTHING about ... and could not POSSIBLY even imagine 2% of it, when they crafted their Epistles.  

As the Apostle James once said in a moment of candor, as was his custom ...

" Verily I say unto thee, what we say here, and what we do here in the service of the LORD, is only what we know about, and does not necessarily include sophisticated discussions among highly intelligent adults, including Internet Blogs."  - James 27:3, Ebedieah 4:6, etc.

I am not a doctor, but I think you need to switch from blue pills to red pills ....

 

Red Pill .... Blue Pill   250    .jpg

Jesus said the Scripture OF HIS TIME was inspired of God, and beneficial for teaching, reproving, and setting things straight.   It was 30 plus  years after his death that what we know now as the New Testament was penned ... and the "Guardians Of The Doctrine", as Geoffrey Jackson referred to the Governing Body, admitted in the Watchtower that they are neither inspired, or infallible in interpreting Scripture.

DUH!

 

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22 hours ago, Noble Berean said:

There is this smugness among the JW leadership,

This is childish. Just because someone does not do what you want them to do, that does not make them smug. You just don't like them.

 

22 hours ago, Noble Berean said:

They've used the two-witness Bible principle as a crutch for their inaction through the years

Is it a 'crutch?' Or is it fundamental to civilized law?

According to the following article, discarding that crutch in favor of the new model of success -  to make a charge stick without having to prove it - has pushed nations to the brink of nuclear war:

"Unproven allegations against Trump and Putin are risking nuclear war - Stephen Cohen"

https://www.rt.com/op-ed/422673-russiagate-skripal-cold-war/

@JW Insider weighed in on this on another thread. He said the West should prove the allegations they make before flaming the alleged perpetrator (Russia) and taking decisive action. But he forgets that, in their eyes, they have proven their charges -  with methods roughly analagous (hidden info that only trained experts can recognize) to the methods of those who would re-define child abuse proof. The intelligence people have their own methods, and they expect the unwashed to go along with their conclusions. To be consistent with his stand on proof in matters of child abuse, it seems that JWI should go along with them.

I am all for elders being educated. I think that is happening. But does he really propose (I may have misread this) that elders be trained in these new techniques of abuse detection and make judicial decisions based upon them?

Here is one @AllenSmith will like about the California judge that just ruled Starbucks must post warnings about cancer risks of coffee. Starbucks is dragging their feet on this, so "the judge can set another phase of trial to consider potential civil penalties up to $2,500 per person exposed each day over eight years. That could be an astronomical sum in a state with close to 40 million residents, though such a massive fine is unlikely." These guys really do sow their wild oats.

http://spectrumlocalnews.com/nys/rochester/news/2018/03/30/california-judge-rules-that-coffee-requires-cancer-warning

On 3/29/2018 at 8:46 PM, JW Insider said:

And perhaps your point is true

There is no reason to think it is not,  [prevention rate 10 times superior to the general Australian population]  except that it is but one "study." We can do what is common in the greater world - wait for study after study after study and then spotilght the one that most closely validates what we already think, but I'll run with the study that actually exists. It may not hold. Perhaps the data from  other commissions, if there are any, will reveal JWs have 5 times the prevention rate, or maybe it will be 20. But we have an indication of the general pattern.

We will have to wait if we want more. Data is not plentiful, for reasons already discussed - most faiths neglected to keep any. But what data we have roughly corresponds with the 2007 statement accompanying a org settlement to the effect that child abuse among JWs is relatively rare, which corroborates roughly with what Ray Franz said that child abuse was not especially a problem and was overblown by media. (Anna has the particulars.) If anyone could be expected to say there was a problem, it would be him. 

I will agree with you that it is still "bad." But it is no worse than the "bad" record of believers of any sort of sin, which record is nonetheless head-and-shoulders above that of the greater world that makes no attempt to live by Bible principles. I'd love if it were perfect, just as I would love if the record in any category was perfect. For now, It can be put in the general category of 'You who say do not xxxx - do you xxxx?' of Romans 2, and it is primarily opposers who would make it the headlining concern.

Moreover, the ones who are likely to be most successful in fixing the problem, in my opinion, are the ones proactive enough to have prevented it 90% (or so) in the first place, not the ones who preside over a far worse record. 

Plus, probably the reason the overall world has such a poor record of prevention and doesn't do much to address it, as JWs do, is because addressing it effectively would require judgements of morality, and some enforcing of that morality. The ones who scream the loudest about reporting deficiencies would then switch to screaming about efforts to "control people."

 

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10 hours ago, AllenSmith said:

Then the ARC came out. You keep throwing out the number 5000 cases when only 1006 cases were viable. ALL OF WHICH HAPPENED IN A SPAN OF 65 YEARS! And you’re making it seem, it happened in 65 DAYS! STOP your exaggeration and be truthful for once!

And for this, JWinsider defends you?

I already mentioned this to you Allen, that you should tell the truth when making an accusation. You indicate that I defended JTR for saying things like there were "1006 perpetrators in over 5,000 instances." This is another falsehood from you. I have never defended those numbers. In fact, I saw them before on this forum and more than once, I corrected them.

In fact there were 1,006 perpetrators who were Jehovah's Witnesses at the time of the the accusations of their crimes. There were more instances than just 1,006 of course. But the number of instances reported in the documentation was not 5,000. Here are some quotes from the ARC's website and documentation. Mostly from: https://www.childabuseroyalcommission.gov.au/sites/default/files/file-list/Case Study 29 - Findings Report - Jehovahs Witnesses.pdf

As at 16 September 2016, the Royal Commission has held 5,925 private sessions and more than 1,687 people were waiting to attend one. Many accounts from these sessions will be recounted in later Royal Commission reports in a de-identified form.

The 5,925 "instances" probably referred to many from Catholic, Unified, JWs, and many other institutions and organizations. Page 11 says:

The evidence before the Royal Commission is that it is not the practice of the Jehovah’s Witness organisation to report child sexual abuse to authorities unless it is required by law to do so. At the time of the public hearing, the Jehovah’s Witness organisation in Australia had recorded allegations, reports or complaints of child sexual abuse made against 1,006 members of the organisation. There is no evidence before the Royal Commission that the organisation reported any of those allegations to police or any other secular authority.

Other statistics that might be of relevance in answering the question about the "90% claim" were also included in the document. It said that the total number of JWs in Australia was 68,000 as of October 2016 (7,000 of them were elders and m.s.) and that it had been 53,000 in 1990, increasing only 29% while the population had increased 38% in the same period. (The worldwide JW membership was reported as 8.2 million at the time.) Also, of interest, is the fact that branch rules for handing child abuse cases began to specifically reference child abuse in 1988, and the rule to call the legal department of the branch for any such case started in 1992. (See also the 1991 "Flock" book.) This might help explain why so few cases were recorded prior to 1988, even though the earliest case references the 1950's.

Page 58 of the October 2016 pdf document states:

  • In response to the Royal Commission’s summons, Watchtower Australia produced some 5,000 documents comprising, among other things, case files relating to 1,006 alleged perpetrators of child sexual abuse dating back to 1950. Royal Commission staff analysed those files and produced data which was for the most part uncontested by Watchtower Australia.

Perhaps someone got the idea that there were 5,000 instances from a statement like the above. But that isn't what is says, or means.

Other statistics in the findings show that 579 of the 1006 admitted their guilt, and that 199 of the 1006 had been involved in child abuse or an accusation of the same before becoming JWs, although it was admitted (by Mr. Spinks, a JW on the stand) that these probably were also involved in such accusations again after becoming Witnesses (which would be the explanation as to why they were included on the list).

Page 58 also clarified that the number being thrown around as 5,000 alleged victims, according to the data provided, is really about 1,800:

the allegations, reports or complaints that the organisation received relate to at least 1,800 alleged victims of child sexual abuse

I will quote the additional statistical points from page 58 which included the point above:

  • the allegations, reports or complaints that the organisation received relate to at least 1,800 alleged victims of child sexual abuse
  • 579 of those against whom allegations were made confessed to having committed child sexual abuse
  • of the 1,006 members against whom allegations of child sexual abuse were made, 108 were elders or ministerial servants at the time of the first instance of alleged abuse
  • 28 alleged perpetrators were appointed as elders or ministerial servants after an allegation of child sexual abuse was made against them
  • 401 alleged perpetrators were disfellowshipped as a result of an allegation of child sexual abuse and 230 of those alleged perpetrators were later reinstated
  • of those disfellowshipped, 78 were disfellowshipped on more than one occasion as a result of an allegation of child sexual abuse.

 

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1 hour ago, TrueTomHarley said:

He said the West should prove the allegations they make before flaming the alleged perpetrator (Russia) and taking decisive action. But he forgets that, in their eyes, they have proven their charges -  with methods roughly analagous (hidden info that only trained experts can recognize) to the methods of those who would re-define child abuse proof.

Yikes! I said nothing about "proof" in either a situation of nations slinging accusations, nor did I even say that sexual abuse can be proven by hidden info that only trained experts can recognize. Proof (and by that I suppose you mean incontrovertible or overwhelming evidence) is rarely a part of sexual abuse allegations, except in extreme circumstances (multiple eyewitnesses, rape kits, video, DNA). Usually, a predator leaves only victims who he (or she) believes will never come forward to complain. (Most young victims don't complain until many years later -- based on fear, threat, "guilt," lack of understanding, lack of trust in any confidants.) But he often leaves circumstantial evidence based on patterns of grooming the victim(s), patterns of characteristics among the types of victims chosen, patterns of controlling the victims, patterns in the methods to gain time alone with victims. These become things to watch out for when trying to protect our children from suspected predators, too. But predators evolve their methods and may try dozens of "patterns."

There is nothing that can re-define child abuse "proof."

1 hour ago, TrueTomHarley said:

I am all for elders being educated. I think that is happening. But does he really propose (I may have misread this) that elders be trained in these new techniques of abuse detection and make judicial decisions based upon them?

No. They need to understand such situations better for nearly the opposite reason. So they can understand the complexities, and know why they are not relying upon themselves to make legal and criminal determinations. Also, they can have more empathy for all involved, and realize that the perpetrator is going to be an expert liar, and will appear completely innocent. They should also realize that the victim will, more often than not, appear to be a complete liar, appear "guilty" of something, with inconsistencies in the story, his or her memories, timelines, etc. They may appear hateful and spiteful and unchristian, while the perpetrator may appear godly and humble and caring and concerned. They should realize what I said above about the unlikelihood of "proof" of any kind.

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11 minutes ago, AllenSmith said:

Do you recall agreeing with O’Maly? A PERSON that literally lied when she said NONE of the 1006 cases were brought to secular authority.

Several of the cases were brought to secular authorities. The problem was that there was no evidence that the elders in any congregation or anyone from the branch organization ever brought even one of the allegations to the authorities. Also, it wasn't just "1,006 cases." There were 1,006 alleged child abusers, and about 1,800 alleged victims recorded. There were also abusers who abused the same victim several times, which is typical.

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1 hour ago, JW Insider said:

Several of the cases were brought to secular authorities. The problem was that there was no evidence that the elders in any congregation or anyone from the branch organization ever brought even one of the allegations to the authorities. Also, it wasn't just "1,006 cases." There were 1,006 alleged child abusers, and about 1,800 alleged victims recorded. There were also abusers who abused the same victim several times, which is typical.

Thank you JWI for your comprehensive analysis.

I stand corrected.

1006 alleged abusers, and 1800 alleged victims recorded ... from the WTB&TS Society's OWN subpoenaed records.

That would make TTH's estimate of  JWs having 10% of the problem of the rest of the 'world", examined by the ARC somewhat high ... and it should be perhaps 2% ?

Did I get that right?

Your scalpel analysis is consistently better than my admitted chainsaw analysis.

 

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11 hours ago, James Thomas Rook Jr. said:

That would make TTH's estimate of  JWs having 10% of the problem of the rest of the 'world", examined by the ARC somewhat high ... and it should be perhaps 2% ?

I don't know. The point of this topic was to see if there was enough information to try to get a better idea.

I know it's tempting to consider this idea of 10% to be from a legitimate "study" just because it made use of numbers. But there is a huge range of conclusions one could make from those numbers if one were to treat them as sloppily as the initial so-called "study" (that concluded with the claim that we are 90% better). So moving from 10% to 2% by assuming the so-called study as a basis is not valid.

For example, a study could look at the fact that 1,006 different alleged child abusers were reported among JWs over a period of years that was similar to the time period covered when 4,445 instances were reported in the Catholic church.

Wikipedia says there are about 5.44 million Catholics in Australian 2016, and our Yearbook says there were about 68,000 JWs.

Quote

and since the 1960s, has remained stable at around one quarter of the Australian population. In 2016, there were 5,439,268 Australian Catholics, representing 23% of the overall population

So, using the same type of assumptions used in the "90% better" claim, we could just as easily say that the problem among JWs is nearly 18.5 times worse than among Catholics. The ratio of Catholic "instances" to their total number is 0.08 out of 100. The ratio of JW "instances" to the total number is 1.48 out of a 100. 

  • 4,445/5,439,268 = 0.08%
  • 1006/68,000 = 1.48%
  • 1.48/.08= 18.5

While the ARC numbers would imply that we are 18.5 times worse than the Catholic church, we would only be about 5.1 times worse than the Uniting Church, using their census numbers, but would be only about 1.4 times worse if we use the most recent number of members reported by the Uniting church. It has evidently lost members in record numbers over the last 5 to 7 years. 

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15 hours ago, TrueTomHarley said:

There is no reason to think it is not,  [prevention rate 10 times superior to the general Australian population]  except that it is but one "study." We can do what is common in the greater world - wait for study after study after study and then spotilght the one that most closely validates what we already think, but I'll run with the study that actually exists. It may not hold.

There are plenty of reasons to think it is not 10 times superior, if based on ARC numbers.There are plenty of reasons to dismiss the so-called "study" as non-sense. The numbers actually do point to the possibility that the problem is 5 to 20 times worse with JWs, but don't get the idea that I think the numbers from the ARC produce any kind of definitive statistic. It's hard to compare record-keeping practices, reporting practices, recidivism rates, sensitivity to publicity, thresholds for dismissal or re-admission of membership, and a whole host of "unknown unknowns."

Personally, I don't think a statistic is important. But I do think that honesty is important. We might be 10 times worse, or 10 times better. And either statistic is meaningless if our process is just and righteous. If our message attracted all of the worse sinners of the world who wanted to see if they could overcome their wicked desires just by association with worldwide brotherhood known for morality, then we could shouldn't be ashamed if we have attracted a large number of pedophiles into our number. But if our judicial process is flawed and is inadvertently "lenient" toward child abusers, or helps to hide them from law enforcement, or perverts justice toward children somehow, then we should focus on that.

I''m concerned about the repetition of a statistic that came from flawed and perhaps less-than-honest reasoning. Quoting such a statistic known to be flawed might also be dishonest. But it also could be harmful if it makes someone think that we are 10 times better if we are perhaps 20 times worse. It might be repeated out of a false pride or presumptuousness. It might reduce the incentive to look for further improvements even if it is correct.

Statistics are flawed by nature, and they are usually employed for purposes that are even more flawed. I speak from experience here. After I left Bethel I went directly into college to get a degree in Computer Science. (My Bethel roommate from my home state and our next door neighbor there, one of my best friends also from my home state, both went straight into college after high school to get a computer science degree and were assigned to the computer department at Bethel.) My first job in my last two years of college was working for the Bureau of Labor Statistics on housing data which turned into a job after graduation for a consulting firm (A.D.Little, Cambridge) through which I worked for the Trump Organization account in NYC. You can imagine what kind of lies, dam* lies, and statistics were being employed. It got so bad I moved into IT for a financial corporation, which probably did bad things, too, but I didn't have to see it up close.

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On 3/30/2018 at 12:46 AM, AllenSmith said:

Most of us have sons and daughters that we need to be personally responsible for. The Governing Body doesn’t hear every human condition that exist in every local congregation. That’s what the Elders are for. But what if the Elder body drops the ball? YOU, JTR, ANNA, and others want to blame the GB. What damn crystal ball do you think the GB has? The GB were dragged in, because the Branch office couldn’t handle the responsibility, but ultimately, the GB take responsibility for the actions of those that should be MATURE. The GB are there to dispense spiritual food. That’s their primary JOB that God has entrusted to them. Jesus was sucked into legal matters by who? But, do you honestly believe he played quarterback, in EVERY CASE, in EVERY Synagogue? Why then would he urge the people to SUBMIT to every authority? That’s what the legal team is there for.

Why are you separating law from spiritual matters? The GB claims to take the lead over the ENTIRE organization--not just the spiritual. The "buck stops" at the GB. They've claimed that responsibility, and they have to accept accountability. The child abuse legal troubles are due to policies that the GB gave a stamp of approval on. The GB may delegate responsibilities to helpers such as lawyers, but all entities within the organization must report to the GB and get their stamp of approval. Very little is getting past the eyes of the GB. Elders act based on the GB-stamped direction they receive from Bethel. It's set up to be that way, because the GB want maximum control over the group as the self professed "faithful slave."

To suggest that the GB was somehow disconnected and not responsible for ineffective abuse policies is ridiculous. The org is controlled from the GB down. Elders have been sending files of alleged pedophiles for years to the branch. This has been a long, ongoing issue.

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1 hour ago, JW Insider said:

I''m concerned about the repetition of a statistic that came from flawed and perhaps less-than-honest reasoning.

It is a simple proportion based upon straightforward facts, the simplest calculation of all, made possible because there were two groups proactive enough to keep records - the Witness organization and the Australian government itself.

All other data is extracted from specialized subsets that are not necessarily, or even likely, representative of the whole.

 

1 hour ago, JW Insider said:

It might be repeated out of a false pride or presumptuousness.

It is more likely to be repeated out of a desire to make a defence for the faith, which I have never imagined was a bad thing.

 

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12 hours ago, JW Insider said:

But I do think that honesty is important. We might be 10 times worse, or 10 times better. And either statistic is meaningless if our process is just and righteous. If our message attracted all of the worse sinners of the world who wanted to see if they could overcome their wicked desires just by association with worldwide brotherhood known for morality, then we could shouldn't be ashamed if we have attracted a large number of pedophiles into our number. But if our judicial process is flawed and is inadvertently "lenient" toward child abusers, or helps to hide them from law enforcement, or perverts justice toward children somehow, then we should focus on that.

Excellent point

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