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2019 Government shutdown - the longest federal closure in U.S. history


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The partial government shutdown is now on its *checks calendar* 15th day. With no resolution in sight, D.C. heavyweights met for a "contentious" or "productive" two hours yesterday...depending on who you ask.

Sen. Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said President Trump threatened to keep the government shuttered "for a very long period of time—months or even years" until he gets funding for a U.S.-Mexico border wall. The president confirmed as much.

But now, businesses are really starting to feel the pinch. Bloomberg offered up some examples...

  • With the majority of the FAA's inspectors not working, commercial airlines can't get permission to add new planes to their fleets.
  • And—perhaps more alarming—with the Alcohol and Tobacco Tax and Trade Bureau closed, brewers can't introduce new beers.

What's more, tax refunds could be delayed. The IRS (which is making do with only 12% of its workforce during the shutdown) launched tax filing season on Jan. 29 last year. And by the end of the first week, it had received 18.3 million returns and processed 6.1 million refunds averaging $2,035 apiece. So, there could be trouble this year if the shutdown continues, and the IRS has not released a contingency plan for filing season...yet.

+ While we're here: Hundreds of TSA officers, who are working without pay during the shutdown, reportedly called in sick from work at major airports last week in protest, per CNN.

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We meet again. The partial government shutdown has now lasted 22 days, which, FYI, is the average gestation period of a rat. It's also the longest government shutdown in U.S. history. With Congress adjourned for the weekend, it looks like this stalemate will rage on.

Checking the numbers

The good (ish): The partial government shutdown has sliced off about $3.6 billion from the U.S. economy as of yesterday, according to S&P Global Ratings.

But $3.6 billion (with a b) isn't much when you consider the U.S. economy is worth $19 trillion (with a t). Plus, some of that loss will be recovered when employees recoup wages post-shutdown.

The bad: The shutdown could potentially end a 99-month streak of job gains. The U.S. has added jobs every month since October 2010, but ifhundreds of thousands of furloughed workers are dropped from federal payrolls, that trend could come to a screeching halt.

"The January employment number could be pretty ugly," Moody's Analytics told the WSJ. That report hits the wires Feb. 1.

Might want to get to the airport early

TSA plans to start closing some security checkpoints at U.S. airports as soon as this weekend, thanks to staffing shortages caused by the shutdown.

More than 51,000 TSA employees have been working without pay since the shutdown began Dec. 22.

TSA said it experienced a 55% increase in employees calling in sick last week.

Plus, Miami International Airport is closing one of its concourses starting today. The airport is one of the busiest in the world and serviced more than 44 million passengers in 2017.

And, a union repping 10,000+ air traffic controllers sued the Trump administration yesterday, claiming it's illegal to force them (and other airport employees) to work without compensation.

But before you cancel that trip to Aruba, TSA said it screened 1.96 million passengers on Thursday and 99.9% waited in line for less than 30 minutes.

+ Also being affected by the shutdown: Farmers, prison guards, homebuyers, and more.

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  • 2 weeks later...

The partial government shutdown is on its 34th day now, and we're closer to MLB spring training than the date this stalemate started. 

Here are two developments we're watching:

1. No growth sir! The Trump administration's top economist told CNN that the U.S. economy might see "zero" growth in the first quarter if the shutdown continues through March (but if the government reopens, Q2 growth could be "humongous").

  • S&P Global estimates the shutdown will cost the U.S. economy more than $5.7 billion by this Friday, which is the amount President Trump has requested for the border wall.

2. When the going gets tough, the tough get gigging: Federal employees and contractors affected by the shutdown have turned to side hustles to get through these rough times, the NYT explains. They've taken jobs as substitute teachers, yoga instructors, delivery drivers, and more...but it's tough to get hired when an employer knows you're not in it for the long haul.

  • Speaking in Davos to CNBC, Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi acknowledged the company's seen more drivers in the nation's capital. "We're hoping that this ends," he added.
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