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An outbreak of a novel coronavirus was initially identified during mid-December 2019 in the city of Wuhan in central China, as an emerging cluster of people with pneumonia with no clear cause. The outbreak was linked primarily to stallholders who worked at the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market, which also sold live animals. Chinese scientists isolated a new strain of coronavirus – given the initial designation of 2019-nCoV – which has been found to be at least 70 percent similar in genome sequence to SARS-CoV. With the development of a specific diagnostic PCR test for detecting the infection, a number of cases were confirmed in people directly linked to the market and in those who were not directly associated with it. Whether this virus is of the same severity or lethality as SARS is unclear

The World Health Organization (WHO) acknowledged that the respiratory illness is an emergency in China, but said it is too early to declare it a global one. - Thursday, January 23, 2020 (Evidently they were waiting to see "person to person spread outside of mainland China" before calling it "global") Nyka Alexander explains in this video - Then they finally call it a Worldwide Emergency a week later but that no travel should be inhibited. 

Virus Expert On The Wuhan Coronavirus Outbreak: 'We Must Treat It Extremely Seriously' | TIME Video

Video of a Chinese medical doctor in the city of Wuhan in tears announcing that there are too many cases of sick people

Stillshot photo of a hospital waiting room with dead bodies on the floor causing many to question the official current # of fatalities seen above

Doctor comments on the never before seen virality of this virus - It appears to double in size every 2 days (based on suspected low Chinese #'s)

Age distribution of fatal cases in China

Comparison w/ the Spanish Influenza of 1918 which killed 50,000,000 people

Could this be a bioweapon that got loose?


People queueing outside a Wuhan drug store to buy face masks and medical supplies

This is a patient who had a high fever in the Wuhan Red Cross Hospital (Wuhan Eleventh Hospital) a few days ago, convulsing!

VIDEO: Entire family with Coronavirus is escorted to an ambulance

In general, coronaviruses spread like the flu:

  • Through the air by coughing or sneezing.
  • Through close personal contact, such as touching a person or shaking hands.
  • By touching a contaminated surface then touching your mouth, nose or eyes.

The same precautions you’d take for the flu generally apply to coronaviruses:

  • Wash your hands well and often.
  • Cough or sneeze into your sleeve — not into your hands.
  • Keep your distance from sick people.

The Centers for Disease Control (CDC) is studying the new virus and may be making specific recommendations if needed. Carole Mathews and Mike Cotey of Employment Security’s Safety Program are monitoring news and will pass on any new information.


The electron micrograph (100 nm) of the first virus strain collected in Wuhan, China

Debunking some medical rumors




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China spent the crucial first days of the Wuhan coronavirus outbreak arresting people who posted about it online and threatening journalists

Another first hand report from a citizen in Wuhan (hit the cc symbol during the video to understand)

Wuhan has over 11,000,000 in population.

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Wuhan, China high speed trains have been stopped. 

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Imagine the potential this has to "derail" the world economy at its weakest moment.

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How to protect yourself

There are currently no vaccines available to protect you against human coronavirus infection. You may be able to reduce your risk of infection by doing the following

  • wash your hands often with soap and water for at least 20 seconds
  • avoid touching your eyes, nose, or mouth with unwashed hands
  • avoid close contact with people who are sick

How to protect others

If you have cold-like symptoms, you can help protect others by doing the following

  • stay home while you are sick
  • avoid close contact with others
  • cover your mouth and nose with a tissue when you cough or sneeze, then throw the tissue in the trash and wash your hands
  • clean and disinfect objects and surfaces


There are no specific treatments for illnesses caused by human coronaviruses. Most people with common human coronavirus illness will recover on their own. However, you can do some things to relieve your symptoms

  • take pain and fever medications (Caution: do not give Aspirin to children)
  • use a room humidifier or take a hot shower to help ease a sore throat and cough

If you are mildly sick, you should

  • drink plenty of liquids
  • stay home and rest

If you are concerned about your symptoms, you should see your healthcare provider.

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One of the doctors in a Wuhan hospital has just died.


Screen Shot 2020-01-26 at 9.15.10 PM.png

70,000 theaters shut down

Disneyland shutdown

40+ million in quarantine

29 out of 31 Chinese provinces have infected

No travel agencies allowed to book any tours or trips in any region of China

Roads being blocked with dirt/rocks

Chinese officials with assault weapons in hazmat suits guarding transportation hubs in Wuhan.

Seems like a lot for 1300 people or in other terms 0.0001083 of Chinese population.

I heard a Mongolian citizen say they were shutting down transport there as well as schools and businesses.

Something just doesn't sit right, this virus incubates for 14 days so we probably have a lot more numbers to come.

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Already spreading faster than SARS & 15 new deaths in one day


Wuhan Hospital Employee


Sign on the door of a Wuhan, China hospital Emergency dept reads:

"Emergency medical staff has been infected. We will no longer treat patients. Quarantine underway."


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Chinese nurse warns the public to stay indoors


Video Shows Armed Soldiers in China Put Wuhan on Lockdown to Stem Spread of Coronavirus

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Chinese doctor in the city of Wuhan in tears announcing that there are too many cases of sick people


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The electron micrograph (100 nm) of the first virus strain collected by the National Pathogen Microbiological Resource Bank (China Center for Disease Control and Prevention of Disease Control and Prevention) in Wuhan, Hubei on January 6, 2020.



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Medical rumors

"Smoking and fireworks can prevent pneumonia"

In January 2020, a screenshot of a WeChat circle of friends was circulated on social media. The text of the screenshot claimed that after smoking cigarettes, cigarette oil covered the surface of the lungs, which could prevent the virus from attaching to and entering human cells, and claimed that the relevant content was in the 2003 SARS incident Confirmed [556] . This is a rumor that has been popular since the SARS incident in 2003 . The Hong Kong Department of Health has rumored that smoking can reduce the body's resistance. Repeated contact with the nose and mouth when smoking causes the virus to sneak in, and you cannot wear a mask to increase protection when smoking. At the same time, there is no data to support the fact that “no smokers died because of SARS” .

"Indoor vinegar can prevent pneumonia"

Indoor boiled vinegar SARS (SARS) spread during a sterilization method, commonly used as a disinfectant in fact SARS is peracetic acid , mainly by peroxy of oxidation , instead of acetic acid . 

"Vitamin C boosts immunity"

In fact, vitamin C can help the body maintain normal immune function, but it cannot enhance immunity and has no antiviral effect. In the treatment of diseases, intake of vitamin C is usually only a supplementary treatment. 

"OC43 virus"

A speech circulating on the Internet purporting to come from Professor Yuan Guoyong of the University of Hong Kong , referring to the virus as OC43 virus. Yuan Guoyong denied that it was related to the article and clarified that the new coronavirus is not OC43. 

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China's President Xi warns virus is 'accelerating', country facing 'grave situation'


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The US Government is trying to get Diplomats and Citizens living in the ground-zero city of Wuhan out. Where will they land and will they be quarantined?


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Unofficially you have video from a hospital in Wuhan showing a bunch of dead bodies on the floor, mixed with crowds of patients, which may suggest “41 deaths” is not the true figure.


A doctor with a special protective suit (cleanroom suit) seeing a patient in Wuhan hospital

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Construction site of Huoshenshan Hospital as it appeared on 24 January

(or as many on social media are rumoring.... "I only see digging equipment for graves".....Hmm).  

Where are the cranes for this rushed construction? Maybe they just haven't arrived yet.

Age distribution of fatal cases in China.


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Look how the Chinese people wait in line sick to get into what appears to be a clinic or hospital



Reuters: Shangai reports first death in Coronavirus-related case on Jan 25 - State Media


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(CNN)Coronavirus has been confirmed in Southern California -- making it the third case in the United States -- as a top Chinese health official delivered some worrisome news about efforts to contain the fast-moving virus.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention notified Orange County health officials Saturday that a potential case of coronavirus tested positive.

The person who tested positive traveled from Wuhan, China -- the epicenter of the outbreak -- and is in isolation and in "good condition" at a local hospital, the Orange County Health Care Agency said in a statement.


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Hong Kong hospital staff to strike on Feb 3 if Hong Kong-China border remains open

Hong Kong hospital staff have issued 5 health demands for the government to meet by Jan 28:

Ban all travellers entering Hong Kong via China

Advise all Hong Kong residents to wear masks

Provide adequate quarantine control and suspend non-emergency services

Investigate cases of escapees

Provide sufficient medical supplies and resources

Deadline for government response: Jan 28

First stage industrial action: Feb 3

Second stage industrial action: Feb 4 - Feb 7


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California’s first case of coronavirus confirmed in Orange County


California has recorded its first confirmed case of the new strain of coronavirus, arriving in Orange County by a traveler who visited from the epicenter of the outbreak in Wuhan, China....The patient is in good condition and is in isolation at a hospital, Orange County health officials said. Health authorities are following up with anyone who has had close contact with the patient, but also noted that people with casual contact — such as visiting the same grocery store or movie theater — “are at minimal risk of developing infection.”

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Rumour from Wuhan that at one hospital over 70 patients died in just one hour

This post says someone working in a hospital in Wuhan said that all the doctors and nurses of two departments died within 3 hours, and that over 70 died within one hour in No. 5 hospital last night.



Date unknown. Rough translation of the chat (from SleepyKitto on the discord server):

White: I just got through my comrade's office line
W: He wailed and told me no one left from the two departments within 3 hours
W: All dead
W: Last night 70 something patients died in Wuhan Fifith Hospital within an hour
Green: Were those doctors?
W: DO NOT take this lightly
W: Doctors, nurses
W: Whole section department, no one left
G: My god, where are the resrouces?
G: (where is) the Government?

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Dr. Liang Wudong, a surgeon who was treating patients in Wuhan, become the first doctor to die from the new Coronavirus at Hubei Xinhua Hospital. A reminder that while everyone else is trying to avoid it, frontline medical staff are risking their lives to cure it and help others.


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China's CDC report says Coronavirus "has higher pandemic risk than SARS" | Can be transmitted without symptoms within incubation period [from renowned Harvard scientist Dr. Eric Ding]

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About 100,000 people could be infected with the new coronavirus around the world, experts have warned, as the UK government faced calls to reassure people that the NHS is ready to deal with any British cases within days.

In spite of the rigorous containment measures China has taken, its ban on flights and the UK checks on travellers from China at Heathrow, experts say it is only a matter of time until there is a case in the UK, given the ease with which the new coronavirus is now believed to pass from one person to another - possibly transmitted by people with mild or even no symptoms at all.

Secondly, there are reports from China of people who have infected others before they have experienced any symptoms.

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Live: Chinese officials brief the media on novel coronavirus control


Asymptomatic man infects 14 medics with coronavirus. They are calling him "超级传播者" (Super-spreader), he took more than 15 days to start feeling symptoms, even though he was able to infect the doctors and nurses.

In 12/25/2019 Zhao, 69, was admitted to the Union Hospital of Huazhong University of Science and Technology in Wuhan. He was suffering from pituitary tumors, he didn't have a very good cardiac function, coronary heart disease, sinus bradycardia and other illnesses. He stayed in the hospitals for 12 days for preoperative examination and evaluation (until January 6th).

Before the brain surgery, he had no respiratory symptoms, normal body temperature, normal white blood cell and lymphocyte values. Preoperative x-rays showed he had some shadows on his left rib cage due to a long history of smoking. He was full of gas, good mental state, the doctors didn't have any reason to doubt he had an sort of viral pneumonia.

December 30, 2019 the hospital received an internal notice about cases of pneumonia of unknown causes and January 7th, 2020 the hospital staff started wearing protection clothes.

Zhao's surgery was done January 8th during the morning, it was done successfully and the patient was in stable conditions.

January 9th the hospital was informed that the unknown cause of pneumonia was a virus called coronavirus. But Zhao didn't have any symptom whatsoever.

January 11th Zhao suddenly got fever, but it was extremely difficult to determine the clinical reason since he made an cranial surgery, it could be changes in the body's stress, cerebral vascular irritation, changes in intracranial pressure...

Meanwhile a neurosurgeon issued a lung CT scan, image display showed multiple lung opacities sheet with right pleural effusion, interstitial pneumonia. Significant pulmonary infection performance has emerged. Also, leukocytes increased significantly, elevated neutrophils, lymphocytes low, these changes are not typical virus infection.

Doctor immediately reported the case and specialists did RNA tests confirming the patient got the virus and infected 14 people from the hospital staff. He was classified as "Super Spreader", that's when a person infects a large amount of people. The hospital doesn't know how many people were infected by the patient and the staff since hundreds of patients, medics and students go to that hospital daily and as observed the infected person might take 15 days to feel symptoms, but can infect others even before the symptoms appear.

Source: China Press




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Coronavirus Live Updates: Alarm Grows as Markets Tumble and Death Toll Rises

Health officials in the United States said more than 100 people were being evaluated for possible infection. Of the nearly 3,000 people who have contracted the virus, the vast majority live in China.

By The New York Times


The death toll in China surpassed 100.

An epidemic is growing. Here’s what you need to know:

Deaths climb above 100 as China records new cases.

Stocks tumble as investors worry about the impact on global growth.

C.D.C. urges travelers to avoid nonessential trips to China.

110 people in the United States are being evaluated for infection.

New York City is bracing for the coronavirus: ‘It’s inevitable.’



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Wuhan Municipal Government Offering Free Cremations

Local reports

The Wuhan municipal government is apparently offering free cremations.  Here is the link on Weibo, which is attributed to the Wuhan Internet Information Office.  According to the post, "during New Year's Eve a funeral agency in Wuhan increased the price to receive remains, causing complaints from survivors."  To make up for apparent price gouging, "charges for the cremation of the remains of deceased pneumonia patients with new coronaviruses will now be free of charge".  We cannot 100% confirm the validity of the Weibo post, but it appears authentic.

Overall, we remain skeptical regarding how the Chinese government is handling the situation, and we very much continue to question the official outbreak tally as well as the death count.  Also of note is back on January 26th, we reported that prior to the coronavirus making the news this month, one cremation center in Wuhan reportedly [we are not able to confirm this] cremated more than 30 bodies in one night alone (and these deaths were not attributed to the coronavirus).  In the same update, we also reported that separately the Wall Street Journal had published an article examining how some hospitals had been  classifying the cause of death in many patients as just "severe pneumonia"and not related to the coronavirus (those deaths also were not included in the count of infected people and deaths).  It is difficult to know what exactly is taking place in China at present, but free cremations is a morbid development we have not seen before and is also a reminder of the earlier reports we heard of December cremations.

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7 hours ago, admin said:

most recover.... but the numbers are still bad.

I thought the chart posted here (below) was interesting. The CDC says that for the United States, 6,600 people died during the 2019-2020 flu season, since about November, basically. 80,000 people died during the 2017-2018 flu season. Flu deaths in the US usually range from 10,000 to 60,000 every year. In the UK it's basically 0 to 10,000. In China it's 0 to 50,000, which is relatively small considering their population is about 4 times the size of the United States.


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10 minutes ago, James Thomas Rook Jr. said:

Meanwhile, 1.2 million people a year are being killed by mosquitoes, . . . .... and there is no panic anywhere!

There would be if these mosquitoes could be traced to China or Russia. Prejudice and racism drive a lot of the hype. Not that this isn't a particularly potent virus, but when 80,000 died from the 2017-18 flu season in the U.S., the Western world was not mapping and charting and reporting in the papers.

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Airport screening info from Clade X

Based on real world results from Ebola, SARS, & swine flu :

An article from Gostic et al summarizes the results of several studies looking at the effectiveness of airport screening measures during past infectious disease outbreaks.1 In 2009 H1N1, about 1.5 million people were screened in 3 countries with only 22 positive results. For SARS in 2003, more than 3 million people were screened, and no cases were identified. Likewise, for Ebola, more than 36,000 people were screened at airports and no cases were identified as a result.1 These numbers suggest that airport screening is ineffective

Gostic et al provide several reasons for why infected individuals may pass through fever screening undetected, including:

  • Those recently infected might still be asymptomatic (viral incubation periods may vary considerably) but could be spreading the disease to those around them.

  • Not all infected people may present with a fever.

  • Passengers may be taking medication to suppress symptoms.

(PDF) http://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/our-work/events/2018_clade_x_exercise/pdfs/Clade-X-fever-screening.pdf

As I anticipated, they are fully aware that airport screening is simply a feel good measure, the same way TSA makes it look like the government is doing something.

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Eric Toner, MD ; Senior Scholar, Senior Scientist @ Johns Hopkins

Eric Toner: "Frankly, I think that it's too late. I think that even before the outbreak was discovered it was already out of control."

News Anchor: "Interesting take there."

Link to the news: https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/video/johns-hopkins-toner-says-china-223658033.html

Biography of Eric Toner: http://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/our-people/toner/

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Major US airlines expand flight cancellations to China and Hong Kong

American Airlines and Delta Air Lines announced more flight cancellations to China on Saturday as coronavirus cases continued to rise.

Delta said it will suspend flights between the United States and China starting on Sunday until at least April 30, according to a press release. 

That's four days earlier than it had initially planned. Delta's last China-bound flight left on Saturday, February 1, and its final returning flight from China to the United States leaves on Sunday. 

Delta moved the date up after the US State Department warned that people should not travel to China due to concerns about the spread of coronavirus, which was first discovered in Wuhan, Hubei province, in December. 

United Airlines -- which announced that it will suspend flights to Beijing, Chengdu and Shanghai from February 6 -- is also reducing flights from the US to Hong Kong.


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From Wikipedia:

"1938 Yellow River flood

Main article: 1938 Yellow River flood

In June 1938, during the Second Sino-Japanese War, the Nationalist troops under Chiang Kai-shek intentionally broke the levees of the Yellow River near Huayuankou[3] to slow the advance of the Japanese army. Although several thousand Japanese troops were drowned, 12 million Chinese were affected, nearly 900,000 of them dying.[4]

Reason for breaching the dike

As the Japanese had been reported to have taken the city of Kaifeng, many of the dikes near Zhengzhou were along the path the Japanese would take if they wanted to capture the city of Wuhan. This was the triggering idea for the Nationalist troops as they pictured the Yellow River being a military tool to stop the advancement of the Japanese. The plan of attack by Chiang and his subordinates was to breach the dikes that withheld the mass amount of water from pouring into the 500-square mile area of central China. However while this long-term idea was in full swing, Chiang’s dilemma stood behind the thought of the many lives that stood past the dikes. This dilemma was thought of in two ways, the first being if he were to breach the dikes then he would be spreading death, wiping hundreds of thousands of people. The other thought was if he didn’t break the dikes then Wuhan would collapse within days. In all a decision was needed quickly and eventually was made as Chiang gave the orders to General Wei Rulin to blow up a dike holding the Yellow River near Henan. As this order was put in place the first few attempts stood no match for the army between June 4 and 6 1938 as the structure was too durable. While the attempts failed left and right, “hour by hour, the Japanese were moving closer.” [5]"


To try and stop the advance of the Japanese .. the Chinese killed 900,000 of THEIR OWN PEOPLE, and subjected 12 million to destruction and hardship of every sort ... to kill several thousand Japanese troops.

....makes you wonder ... what might REALLY be going on now, in Wuhan.

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When I was 9 years old, I got Scarlet Fever, and the Norfolk, Virginia Heath Department put a quarantine sign on our house, forbidding anyone to enter or leave ... so I took the screen out of the back window, lowered myself onto  our elevated furnace oil tank on stilts, held on to the filler pipe, and dropped to the ground ... and went to play with all my friends.

....... so much for quarantines.


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20,000 + infected..... I still think the damage to the economy is going to really hit hard in the months to come. Someone told me today that March in the US will hit hard.....

Brace for impact!

tom hanks snl GIF by Saturday Night Live

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Virus threatens U.S. companies’ supply of Chinese-made parts and materials

The battle to contain the Chinese coronavirus threatens to cut off U.S. companies from parts and materials they need to produce iPhones, automobiles and appliances and drugs to treat medical conditions including Alzheimer’s disease, high blood pressure and malaria.

Some of the United States’ best-known manufacturers such as General Electric, Caterpillar and the Big Three automakers, along with many smaller American businesses, depend on what is made in Chinese factories.

Now, they confront life without those items. Major airlines in the United States and Europe are halting their cargo and passenger flights to China for up to two months. Recent visitors to the country are barred from entering the United States.


Apple shuts down all stores and corporate offices in China amid the continued Wuhan coronavirus outbreak


  • Apple announced on Saturday it was closing all of its offices and stores in China out of an "abundance of caution" amid the spread of the Wuhan coronavirus. 
  • The Wuhan coronavirus has killed at least 259 and infected around 12,000, primarily in China. 
  • Apple, which earns about a quarter of its operating income in China, said it will keep its online store open during the shutdown. 


US companies suspend China operations, restrict travel as coronavirus outbreak becomes global crisis


  • Disney, Tesla, airlines and other global companies with significant footprints in China are suspending operations as they respond to the outbreak of the coronavirus.
  • The WHO has recommended against “measures that unnecessarily interfere with international trade or travel.”
  • As the virus continues to spread, and institutions respond, it threatens to disrupt sectors from travel and retail to tech.



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Google is temporarily shutting down all of its China offices due to the coronavirus outbreak, the company confirmed to The Verge on Wednesday. The shutdown includes all offices in mainland China, as well as Google’s offices in Hong Kong and Taiwan.

Currently, the offices are closed for the extended Lunar New Year holiday, a measure the Chinese government took to help reduce the spread of the virus by encouraging residents to stay inside and avoid travel.


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Why do I feel like central banks printing massive amounts of money to prop up dying stock markets can't be a good thing in the wake of this pandemic?

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1 hour ago, admin said:

Why do I feel like central banks printing massive amounts of money to prop up dying stock markets can't be a good thing in the wake of this pandemic?

More to the point ... what am I supposed to do now, when my favorite Chinese Buffet  has a small army of undocumented Chinese waitresses?

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A pregnant mother infected with the coronavirus gave birth, and her baby tested positive 30 hours later

A 30-hour-old infant born in a children's hospital in Wuhan, China, has become the youngest person to catch the new coronavirus.

The newborn's mother has the coronavirus, the South China Morning Post reported on Wednesday, citing the state broadcaster CCTV. The baby's case raised the possibility that the new virus could jump from person to person via vertical transmission, or when a person passes a virus to their child in the womb, during childbirth, or via breast milk.

"We should be concerned about the possible new transmission route of the coronavirus," Zeng Lingkong, a senior physician at the Wuhan children's hospital's neonatal department, told the Post, adding that pregnant people should stay away from people with the coronavirus.

CCTV said the infant's vital signs were stable, according to the Post. A picture published by China's People's Daily newspaper showed the infant in an incubator.



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Tencent may have accidentally leaked real data on Wuhan virus deaths

Tencent briefly lists 154,023 infections and 24,589 deaths from Wuhan coronavirus

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TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — As many experts question the veracity of China's statistics for the Wuhan coronavirus outbreak, Tencent over the weekend seems to have inadvertently released what is potentially the actual number of infections and deaths, which were astronomically higher than official figures.

On late Saturday evening (Feb. 1), Tencent, on its webpage titled "Epidemic Situation Tracker," showed confirmed cases of novel coronavirus (2019nCoV) in China as standing at 154,023, 10 times the official figure at the time. It listed the number of suspected cases as 79,808, four times the official figure.

The number of cured cases was only 269, well below the official number that day of 300. Most ominously, the death toll listed was 24,589, vastly higher than the 300 officially listed that day.

Moments later, Tencent updated the numbers to reflect the government's "official" numbers that day. Netizens noticed that Tencent has on at least three occasions posted extremely high numbers, only to quickly lower them to government-approved statistics.


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Global shipping has been hit by the coronavirus. Now goods are getting stranded

Shipping companies that carry goods from China to the rest of the world say they are reducing the number of seaborne vessels, as measures to stop the spread of the coronavirus crimp demand for their services and threaten to disrupt global supply chains.

About 80% of world goods trade by volume is carried by sea and China is home to seven of the world's 10 busiest container ports, according to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development. Nearby Singapore and South Korea each have a mega port too.

A closure of the world's manufacturing hub impacts container shipping at large, as it is a vital facilitator of the intra-Asian and global supply chains," said Peter Sand, chief shipping analyst at BIMCO, an international shipping association. "This will affect many industries and limit demand for containerized goods transport," Sand told CNN Business.

Everything from cars and machinery to apparel and other consumer staples are shipped in containers, and disruption to the industry could reverberate far beyond China as the country seeks to contain the coronavirus outbreak by keeping factories shut and workers at home.

Read more: https://edition.cnn.com/2020/02/05/business/shipping-coronavirus-impact/index.html

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This is insane. Sick passengers evacuated, no ones wearing any protective gear, and they let all of the passengers leave! 

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Can someone who reads Chinese please tell me what is going with this plane and Coronavirus?

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At the apparent 15% daily rate of increase of cases and deaths both inside and outside of China, by April 24th everyone in China would have the virus. By that date the number of cases outside of China would be ~11,718,858.

The average daily rate of increase over the past 7 days:

China cases 20.25%

China deaths 18.80%

non-China cases 15.19%

Source: https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports

Hubei cases 25.58%; deaths 31.25%

Zhejiang cases 12.58%

Guangdong cases 15.85%

Beijing cases 13.97%

Source: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1wQVypefm946ch4XDp37uZ-wartW4V7ILdg-qYiDXUHM/htmlview?usp=sharing&sle=true

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CDC only updating site on Mon/Wed/Fri instead of daily now?

Anyone else find this suspicious that instead of daily updates as it had been for at least a week....on 2/5 the CDC decided to change to only updating their info 3 times a week. Suspicious. I think US cases will rise today on update, and not again until Monday when it should be sooo many more....maybe try to prevent mass panic over the weekend? Thoughts? Also hardly any news about possible cases out for testing in the US over the past couple days.

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10 hours ago, Health and Medicine said:

Anyone else find this suspicious that instead of daily updates as it had been for at least a week....on 2/5 the CDC decided to change to only updating their info 3 times a week. Suspicious.

The JHU data is still being updated on a daily basis, although it might become overwhelming to try to keep all this data mapped to all locations after a while. https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Most interesting is the daily graph of reported cases, blown up below. It still seems linear from about January 31. The nearly imperceptible leveling between February 2 and 3 was thought to be the start of some good news (a plateau) but it "corrected" to the same linear progression since then. Linear is not typical of a virus outbreak. For something so easily transmitted it implies effective quarantining. When it breaks out into a place where it catches that population by surprise and goes undetected and untreated for too long, the increase is exponential (not linear) until a plateau. If the current linear rate could be maintained, the growth could be limited to 3.5k/day for nearly a year before 100,000 cases. But without a vaccine well before then, there are too many chances that it breaks into an exponential growth rate. In which case, if completely out of control, about half the world could be affected, with death rates higher than the currently typical 2 percent (due to overwhelmed facilities).

This is speculation, of course, but that would make the worst case scenario affect 50 percent of 8 billion, or 4 billion, and with the current death rate of 2 percent bumped up to 4 percent means 160 million could die.

For comparison, the Spanish Influenza (this is not the flu and not SARS) affected about 20 percent of the world's population in 1918/9 (but there are more people in closer contact with one another now). About 15 percent of those affected probably died, perhaps 3 percent of the world's population (out of nearly 2B), or about 50 million people.

Just because I'm a nerd, and not because I know anything about it, I would make the following assumptions for a personal guess as to how bad this will get. Because the worst case scenario is so bad, I think that all countries (with any sense) will put a ton of resources into finding an anti-virus or at least a means of earlier detection so that multiple quarantining facilities are not overwhelmed. Therefore my own worst-case estimate is that the cases remain linear for another couple months, with only smaller population breakouts becoming exponential. Deaths therefore remain at 2 percent and the total population infected before a plateau doesn't reach above 1 million. Deaths therefore top out at about 20,000. That is scary, but would make this whole scare much less scary than the flu season of 2017/8.

The 2017-2018 flu season was severe for all populations and resulted in an estimated 959,000 hospitalizations and 79,400 deaths. This is the highest number of patient claims since the 2009 flu season.(wikipedia)



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More people have died from the Wuhan coronavirus than the 2003 SARS epidemic

The death toll from the novel coronavirus has surpassed that of the 2003 SARS epidemic.

Fatalities from the Wuhan virus climbed past 800 today (Feb. 9), officially topping the 774 deaths attributed to SARS, as millions of people in China prepare to get back to work after an extended Lunar New Year holiday. The overwhelming majority of those deaths, 780, have occurred in China’s Hubei province—home to the city of Wuhan, the epicenter of the outbreak—and all but two have been in mainland China.

The first known death from the coronavirus outside of China was a 44-year-old Chinese man from Wuhan who died in the Philippines and was thought to have had other preexisting health conditions. A 39-year-old man with an underlying health condition also died in Hong Kong.

A 60-year-old American woman who died at Jinyintan Hospital in Wuhan on Feb. 6 was the first confirmed non-Chinese death from the illness, the US Embassy said. A Japanese national in Wuhan, a man in his 60s, is also thought to have died from the coronavirus, though the local hospital he was taken to on Jan. 22 couldn’t confirm the cause of death.

The number of people infected with the Wuhan virus globally surpassed that of SARS (8,098) last month. More than 37,000 people worldwide are now thought to have been infected, most of them in mainland China. It’s still too soon to say how deadly the virus is.

Read more: https://qz.com/1799591/wuhan-coronavirus-death-toll-surpasses-that-of-sars/?utm_source=YPL&yptr=yahoo

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The leveling off of new infections between 2/8 and 2/9 is the type of news the doctors, China, WHO, etc., have been waiting for. (Unless it was a matter of not finishing the input of all the cases due to overworked workers and the weekend staffing levels.)


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Highest single day jump of reported cases was between yesterday and today. Don't know when they stop counting for the day, but it's 15,000 new cases identified in the most recent short period. Might be due to a recent increase in patrols where all houses are visited to make sure everyone gets to the hospitals, or identified for quarantine. (The new cases still nearly all confined to Wuhan, Hubei.)

Edited to add: as long as no one has responded to this, I should add that this apparently was actually the result of redefining what it means to have the infection. There was a certain level of evidence required to report a "sure case" of infection with the virus. Now that level of evidence has been redefined to include more cases that might have shown almost no symptoms previously. (A little like when the the autism spectrum was redefined and then suddenly the number of cases of reported autism rose dramatically.)



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February 13 coronavirus news


Death toll spikes: China's Hubei province announced 242 new deaths from the novel coronavirus, which is known officially as Covid-19, today — twice as many as on the previous day. New infections there jumped by more than 14,000.

What this is about: The spike in numbers is partly due to a broader definition of what constitutes a confirmed case, to include people diagnosed on the basis of their symptoms rather than testing positive.

Global spread: There are at least 570 confirmed cases of coronavirus in more than 25 countries and territories outside mainland China.


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CV is no joke...

"My aunt and uncle were Americans on the Princess Cruise ship in Japan. They are obsessively healthy people in their 60s and early 70s. They are now both in the ICU in the hospital in Japan. My uncle is having a hard time breathing and my aunt is a week behind him with all her symptoms. This virus is no joke. These are people who go hiking and walking for miles everyday. They had zero health problems. They looked younger than their age. Now they are fighting for their life. If they are both ok and make it through I can’t imagine the level of PTSD from this." - Reddit comment

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