New Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Pandemic (aka WuFlu)

[admin]

Why do I feel like central banks printing massive amounts of money to prop up dying stock markets can't be a good thing in the wake of this pandemic?

[James Thomas Rook Jr.]

1 hour ago, admin said:

Why do I feel like central banks printing massive amounts of money to prop up dying stock markets can't be a good thing in the wake of this pandemic?

More to the point ... what am I supposed to do now, when my favorite Chinese Buffet  has a small army of undocumented Chinese waitresses?

[Isabella]

A pregnant mother infected with the coronavirus gave birth, and her baby tested positive 30 hours later

A 30-hour-old infant born in a children's hospital in Wuhan, China, has become the youngest person to catch the new coronavirus.

The newborn's mother has the coronavirus, the South China Morning Post reported on Wednesday, citing the state broadcaster CCTV. The baby's case raised the possibility that the new virus could jump from person to person via vertical transmission, or when a person passes a virus to their child in the womb, during childbirth, or via breast milk.

"We should be concerned about the possible new transmission route of the coronavirus," Zeng Lingkong, a senior physician at the Wuhan children's hospital's neonatal department, told the Post, adding that pregnant people should stay away from people with the coronavirus.

CCTV said the infant's vital signs were stable, according to the Post. A picture published by China's People's Daily newspaper showed the infant in an incubator.

 

https://www.businessinsider.com/wuhan-coronavirus-in-infant-born-from-infected-mother-2020-2

[admin]

Tencent may have accidentally leaked real data on Wuhan virus deaths

Tencent briefly lists 154,023 infections and 24,589 deaths from Wuhan coronavirus

TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — As many experts question the veracity of China's statistics for the Wuhan coronavirus outbreak, Tencent over the weekend seems to have inadvertently released what is potentially the actual number of infections and deaths, which were astronomically higher than official figures.

On late Saturday evening (Feb. 1), Tencent, on its webpage titled "Epidemic Situation Tracker," showed confirmed cases of novel coronavirus (2019nCoV) in China as standing at 154,023, 10 times the official figure at the time. It listed the number of suspected cases as 79,808, four times the official figure.

The number of cured cases was only 269, well below the official number that day of 300. Most ominously, the death toll listed was 24,589, vastly higher than the 300 officially listed that day.

Moments later, Tencent updated the numbers to reflect the government's "official" numbers that day. Netizens noticed that Tencent has on at least three occasions posted extremely high numbers, only to quickly lower them to government-approved statistics.

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3871594

[James Thomas Rook Jr.]

yikes!

[Isabella]

Global shipping has been hit by the coronavirus. Now goods are getting stranded

Shipping companies that carry goods from China to the rest of the world say they are reducing the number of seaborne vessels, as measures to stop the spread of the coronavirus crimp demand for their services and threaten to disrupt global supply chains.

About 80% of world goods trade by volume is carried by sea and China is home to seven of the world's 10 busiest container ports, according to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development. Nearby Singapore and South Korea each have a mega port too.

A closure of the world's manufacturing hub impacts container shipping at large, as it is a vital facilitator of the intra-Asian and global supply chains," said Peter Sand, chief shipping analyst at BIMCO, an international shipping association. "This will affect many industries and limit demand for containerized goods transport," Sand told CNN Business.

Everything from cars and machinery to apparel and other consumer staples are shipped in containers, and disruption to the industry could reverberate far beyond China as the country seeks to contain the coronavirus outbreak by keeping factories shut and workers at home.

Read more: https://edition.cnn.com/2020/02/05/business/shipping-coronavirus-impact/index.html

[admin]

This is insane. Sick passengers evacuated, no ones wearing any protective gear, and they let all of the passengers leave! 

BREAKING: Passengers aboard the Anthem of the Seas are being loaded into ambulances. More than two dozen aboard a Royal Caribbean cruise that docked in New Jersey on Friday morning were screened for #coronavirus, and 4 were taken to a hospital. (NBC4NY)pic.twitter.com/k1oLnq09if

— Max Howroute▫️ (@howroute) February 7, 2020

RC Update: Approx 2 dozen were screened this morning with 4 sent to area hosp for further screening. I was advised CDC considers this “Below Low Risk” situation. All other passengers released w/no action needed.

— Mayor Jimmy Davis (@DavisForBayonne) February 7, 2020

[Health and Medicine]

Can someone who reads Chinese please tell me what is going with this plane and Coronavirus?

一名記者朋友告訴我，美國情報界及軍方內部認定應將 #武汉肺炎病毒 当作生化武器对待。看到这个美國撤僑的视频，我有点信了。#新冠病毒 pic.twitter.com/2E1IXAlFVe

— 曾錚 Jennifer Zeng (@jenniferatntd) February 7, 2020

[Health and Medicine]

At the apparent 15% daily rate of increase of cases and deaths both inside and outside of China, by April 24th everyone in China would have the virus. By that date the number of cases outside of China would be ~11,718,858.

The average daily rate of increase over the past 7 days:

China cases 20.25%

China deaths 18.80%

non-China cases 15.19%

Source: https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports

Hubei cases 25.58%; deaths 31.25%

Zhejiang cases 12.58%

Guangdong cases 15.85%

Beijing cases 13.97%

Source: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1wQVypefm946ch4XDp37uZ-wartW4V7ILdg-qYiDXUHM/htmlview?usp=sharing&sle=true

[Health and Medicine]

CDC only updating site on Mon/Wed/Fri instead of daily now?

Anyone else find this suspicious that instead of daily updates as it had been for at least a week....on 2/5 the CDC decided to change to only updating their info 3 times a week. Suspicious. I think US cases will rise today on update, and not again until Monday when it should be sooo many more....maybe try to prevent mass panic over the weekend? Thoughts? Also hardly any news about possible cases out for testing in the US over the past couple days.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-in-us.html

[JW Insider]

10 hours ago, Health and Medicine said:

Anyone else find this suspicious that instead of daily updates as it had been for at least a week....on 2/5 the CDC decided to change to only updating their info 3 times a week. Suspicious.

The JHU data is still being updated on a daily basis, although it might become overwhelming to try to keep all this data mapped to all locations after a while. https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Most interesting is the daily graph of reported cases, blown up below. It still seems linear from about January 31. The nearly imperceptible leveling between February 2 and 3 was thought to be the start of some good news (a plateau) but it "corrected" to the same linear progression since then. Linear is not typical of a virus outbreak. For something so easily transmitted it implies effective quarantining. When it breaks out into a place where it catches that population by surprise and goes undetected and untreated for too long, the increase is exponential (not linear) until a plateau. If the current linear rate could be maintained, the growth could be limited to 3.5k/day for nearly a year before 100,000 cases. But without a vaccine well before then, there are too many chances that it breaks into an exponential growth rate. In which case, if completely out of control, about half the world could be affected, with death rates higher than the currently typical 2 percent (due to overwhelmed facilities).

This is speculation, of course, but that would make the worst case scenario affect 50 percent of 8 billion, or 4 billion, and with the current death rate of 2 percent bumped up to 4 percent means 160 million could die.

For comparison, the Spanish Influenza (this is not the flu and not SARS) affected about 20 percent of the world's population in 1918/9 (but there are more people in closer contact with one another now). About 15 percent of those affected probably died, perhaps 3 percent of the world's population (out of nearly 2B), or about 50 million people.

Just because I'm a nerd, and not because I know anything about it, I would make the following assumptions for a personal guess as to how bad this will get. Because the worst case scenario is so bad, I think that all countries (with any sense) will put a ton of resources into finding an anti-virus or at least a means of earlier detection so that multiple quarantining facilities are not overwhelmed. Therefore my own worst-case estimate is that the cases remain linear for another couple months, with only smaller population breakouts becoming exponential. Deaths therefore remain at 2 percent and the total population infected before a plateau doesn't reach above 1 million. Deaths therefore top out at about 20,000. That is scary, but would make this whole scare much less scary than the flu season of 2017/8.

The 2017-2018 flu season was severe for all populations and resulted in an estimated 959,000 hospitalizations and 79,400 deaths. This is the highest number of patient claims since the 2009 flu season.^(wikipedia)

 

[TrueTomHarley]

1 hour ago, JW Insider said:

Just because I'm a nerd

“Recalculating...”