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U.S. alone: 8,200 dead! 140,000 hospitalized! Deadly virus spreads from state to state and has infected 15 million Americans so far.

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Not to minimize the potency of the coronavirus. But it looks like CNN finally decided it was time to make the point some have been making here for several days. It's not the coronavirus. It's the flu (this 2019-2020 season, so far). The article is here:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/30/health/flu-deadly-virus-15-million-infected-trnd/index.html

Even the low-end estimate of deaths each year is startling, Savoy said: The Centers for Disease Control predicts at least 12,000 people will die from the flu in the US every year. In the 2017-2018 flu season, as many as 61,000 people died, and 45 million were sickened.
In the 2019-2020 season so far, 15 million people in the US have gotten the flu and 8,200 people have died from it, including at least 54 children. Flu activity has been elevated for 11 weeks straight, the CDC reported, and will likely continue for the next several weeks.
 

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So far, the Johns Hopkins site seems to have the best information about the spread of the coronavirus. Looks like it will hit 10,000 today with 213+ dead. If you move the map to the United States you can click on each individual case (5 so far).

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

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On 1/31/2020 at 9:21 AM, JW Insider said:

15 million people in the US have gotten the flu and 8,200 people have died from it, including at least 54 children. Flu activity has been elevated for 11 weeks straight, the CDC reported, and will likely continue for the next several weeks.

It's good to put things into proper perspective. 

The problem with this new virus is just that: it's new, and that's obviously always scary for scientists because they cannot be sure what they're up against. Mutated viruses are apparently more insidious because they become "super viruses" i.e. harder to kill, multiply quicker and are easier to pass on. Besides these reasons, I wonder if there is something the scientists aren't telling us that's so scary about this particular corona virus, besides there being no vaccine yet. 

 

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10 hours ago, Anna said:

I wonder if there is something the scientists aren't telling us that's so scary about this particular corona virus,

Too early to tell, of course. Seems, the effects are somewhere between a flu and a pneumonia. But the percentage of those who are infected to those who die (so far) is something like 2 percent, where not all early cases resulted in timely hospitalization. (Mostly because of how it effects the elderly.) Now that nearly all cases result in hospitalization, that percentage is slightly dropping (so far). The problem will show up again when it presents in even more remote, poor areas with very few hospitals and facilities. China is still a poor country, but can manage its resources well to react to such a problem. 

The effects of the flu in America kill about 6 percent of those hospitalized. 8k/140k. The United States has remote, poor areas too, but this country is also able to manage resources to react, although probably not as well as China. (But of all those infected with the flu in the United States the death rate is hardly even a tenth of one percent, because for most persons the flu isn't potent enough to require hospitalization.)

So it's a much more serious virus, and had it started in rural, southern America it would likely have spread much more rapidly. If it had been discovered only a few weeks later in China, it would have spread much more rapidly too. By far, the world's greatest "migrations" happen during holiday seasons in China, where a very high percentage of Chinese take to their high-speed trains and criss-cross China to visit family and friends in other provinces.

It acts like a very contagious flu, and could easily break into countries where the 2 percent death rate is expected. If it takes 3 months to create a vaccine or a survival treatment, this means that in three months with a nearly "linear" rate of increase (3k more each day) there would be on the order of 100,000 in three months, where 2 percent is 2,000 deaths. If exponential, deriving from current rates, then a million people could have it in 3 months where 2 percent is 20,000 deaths.

But China shared the full genetic sequence of the virus back on January 10, so if everyone rushes this would typically mean that vaccines would be developed in a matter of 1 to 2 months.

And as you say, then the big thing is how to stay ahead of morphing (evolving) versions.

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54 minutes ago, JW Insider said:

If exponential, deriving from current rates, then a million people could have it in 3 months where 2 percent is 20,000 deaths.

But China shared the full genetic sequence of the virus back on January 10, so if everyone rushes this would typically mean that vaccines would be developed in a matter of 1 to 2 months.

I have heard it is supposed to take over a year to develop a vaccine. If that's the case then Armageddon might have to come earlier!

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5 hours ago, TrueTomHarley said:

Just for kicks, google ‘corona virus biological weapon’ and see what comes up

Something like that happens with just about everything that comes out of China. Of course, it was odd that it was so closely timed to Chinese New Year. As it is, it will easily slow down China's economy by 1 or 2 percent. If it had gone just another week or so without being caught, and the New Year's travel had begun, it would have accomplished exactly what Trump would have wished the tariffs could accomplish.

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40 minutes ago, James Thomas Rook Jr. said:

What does Trump wish the tariffs accomplish?

That's pretty simple using Trump's own words:

"We can't continue to allow China to rape our country, and that's what we're doing,"

"the greatest theft in the history of the world [is carried out by China]"

He was speaking about China's unfair competitive advantage over the USA through subsidies, currency manipulation, and their low-cost labor. China was put on a watch-list to watch for currency manipulation but there was no evidence they had done this.

So Trump went after the trade deficit, which had been $365 billion as reported for 2015 when Trump was running. It's now reported at $419 billion for 2018. (US exports 120 billion a year to China and we import 540 billion.) 

Trump said that the tariffs could greatly reduce this deficit. America would win big by NOT trading with them any more.

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So this isn't about the idea that Trump had anything to do with the coronavirus. It's just that it would have the effect of reducing China's ability to produce, slow down their economy, and stop a lot of people from trading with China. There are persons in governments who are so stupid that they would think of such a vicious solution without concern for the possible consequences for the rest of the world, or the reputation the US would suffer. After all, look at America's use of weapons of mass destruction, napalm, agent orange, chemical and biological weapons development. Look at what America did to North Korea. Or even so-called "conventional" weapons like MOAB that apparently killed more civilians in Afghanistan than soldiers.

But I'm only talking about where and why such conspiracies will so easily get spread.

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If someone stops buying your stuff ... sell to somebody else.

This should not reduce production ... it only increases the marketing costs to new customers.

Of course with SOME items, the ONLY people that buy those products are Americans.

I am thinking of "Novelty Shop" photorealistic rubber or plastic imitation dog poop, and imitation vomit.

 

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Seems to me, people here have forgotten the great influenza outbreak of 1918, Spanish flu that was mimicked by the SARS. However, the coronavirus is not just a “new” strain of influenza as indicated here, it mimics the “MERS” virus that also has NO vaccine to cure people. Therefore, people cannot simply state its influenza.

These are resistant strains that continue to develop into diseases that are not common.

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44 minutes ago, James Thomas Rook Jr. said:

If someone stops buying your stuff ... sell to somebody else.

This should not reduce production ... it only increases the marketing costs to new customers

That wouldn't help the trade deficit with China if they stopped buying American stuff, and Americans still bought their stuff. It would merely increase that deficit.

Of course, if Americans were to also stop buying their stuff, that would help the deficit. But then, where would Walmart be? Where would millions of Walmart employees be? To be price-competitive with Walmart, Amazon also relies heavily on China for product.to sell. Apple, too. So, prices go up due to not being able to rely on low cost labor from China, and some products will go up in price due the high "barriers of entry" to start up manufacturing in other places, or begin relying on them.

You might be looking at the angle of America continuing to produce as much as it does and sell to new markets. If there is currently a $100b/year potential selling American products to Chinese markets, where is the replacement market for $100b/yr product going to come from, no matter how much more is spent on marketing? Britain has fought wars with China to force them to buy drugs (esp, opium) from British sources. The US has fought wars, but mostly just fighting through financial leverage, to force countries to advertise and sell American cigarette brands. In the age of the Internet this is nearly impossible to pull off so easily, so that it costs even more (militarily) to force a regime change or otherwise force a country to buy American products.

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Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases Regarding the novel Coronavirus: "The virus “has demonstrated the capacity to spread globally"

Is it just me, or is that a really stupid statement. I mean surely ANY virus that is inside a host, and the host travels from one side of the globe to the other, will have the same capacity? (Don't blame the virus).

 

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