1975 and the Jehovah's Witnesses

[TrueTomHarley]

36 minutes ago, JW Insider said:

he showed an earlier version of it with twice as many red marks and x's all over it, with notes in the margins, all from a big red marking pen, as if it were a school paper receiving and "F" that had to be redone almost from scratch if it were to pass even with a "D-minus"

Every day I write several pages for the World News Forum. My wife always cuts it down to a line or two.

 

37 minutes ago, JW Insider said:

was especially dramatic about how his own work got torn up because he just couldn't write without making dozens of logical, scriptural and doctrinal mistakes.

She says that's why she does it, too.

38 minutes ago, JW Insider said:

(He was one of the brothers who gave my wedding talk.) He was dismissed from Bethel about a year after he gave my wedding talk.

Why couldn't you have gotten married at the Justice of the Peace and spared this poor brother?

[JW Insider]

12 minutes ago, TrueTomHarley said:

Every day I write several pages for the World News Forum. My wife always cuts it down to a line or two.

Ahhh! So that's what I need. A wife as editor. Actually she cuts it down to ZERO lines when she catches me looking at this site while sitting at a convention. Between talks of course.

12 minutes ago, TrueTomHarley said:

Why couldn't you have gotten married at the Justice of the Peace and spared this poor brother?

LOL. Of course, this brother should have told me he might be in trouble. He had written a commentary on Ecclesiastes that was really good and had also given a version of it as a non-outline talk in several congregations. The portion on marriage was so good that I have used it myself for wedding talks even in the last few years. (Nobody ties it to this poor brother anymore.) Fortunately my wife had the sense to balance the portion of the talk he gave with that of another brother from Writing who remained on good terms with the Writing Department until his death just a couple years ago.

[The Librarian]

@JW Insider I moved two posts to under more relevant topics ;-)   They were very interesting reads.

[DefenderOTT]

The Penitent Man

Psalm 6:8-9

Depart from me, all you who do iniquity, For the LORD has heard the voice of my weeping. The LORD has heard my supplication, The LORD receives my prayer.

It hasn't been *Proven* why 0.2% of people "chose" to speculate in 1975 and 99.8% of people didn't with the same information given...

What does the JWfacts angle offer that the simple truth doesn't? I think the GB, might be is asking the same question now.

 

[JW Insider]

17 hours ago, Anna said:

Do you have any concrete evidence for that?

Looks like some of the items I responded to under this topic were moved to the following two topics: (The first of the two was the one intended to answer this question about concrete evidence.)

 

 

 

[JW Insider]

2 minutes ago, DefenderOTT said:

It hasn't been *Proven* why 0.2% of people "chose" to speculate in 1975 and 99.8% of people didn't with the same information given...

What does the JWfacts angle offer that the simple truth doesn't? I think the GB, might be is asking the same question now.

And it hasn't been proven whether 99.8% chose to speculate and only 0.2% chose not to speculate. Unless you are referring to all the people in the world, most of whom never saw the information given.

My guess, no better than yours, is the following -- referring not to persons at HQ, but to those whom the Watchtower refers to as "rank and file" publishers.

• 33% chose to speculate that Armageddon was likely due in the 1970's  but without taking any specific actions
• 33% chose to speculate and took specific actions based on a belief that Armageddon was due in the 1970's
• 33% chose NOT to speculate, due to either apathy, spiritual weakness, lack of faith or obedience in the instructions of the WTS, a haughty feeling that they were above the silliness of date-setting, or a presumptuousness that their own view of Matthew 24:36 for example, was better than that being presented by the WTS --or hopefully,-- because they were spiritually mature, and had wisdom of experience, foresight, and an understanding of the unimportance of such speculation.

My roughly estimated numbers only admit to about 66% in total speculating for various reasons, but I can easily show why these persons, whatever their actual number,  might have decided to speculate. It's because they were ASKED to speculate. They were given questions that called for speculation.

For example, if I put these questions in front of you asking: "IS IT LATER THAN YOU THINK?" "Is Time Running Out for this Generation?" "What will the 1970's bring?" Then I am clearly asking you to speculate.

If I then later had to admit that "considerable expectation was aroused regarding the year 1975" . and that "there were other statements published that implied that such realization of hopes by that year was more of a probability than a mere possibility."  Then how could I claim that later that I wasn't ASKING 100% of people to speculate.

We should really be focusing on why some chose NOT to speculate when 100% of us were asked to speculate. What were our personal motives?

As to the actual numbers, I base some of it on adding up the yearly increase numbers to nearly 43% in the 6 years leading up to and including 1975 and adding up only about 9% in the 6 years following (including a couple years of actual losses). The difference is about 33%. For multiple years, the pre-1975 baptisms had spiked to double and triple their later averages in the years following 1975. The KM reported tens of thousands more people who had joined the ranks of pioneers in the years just prior to 1975. This appears to show that the speculators were much more responsive to WTS calls for speculation than you might guess.

[DefenderOTT]

1 hour ago, JW Insider said:

My guess, no better than yours, is the following -- referring not to persons at HQ, but to those whom the Watchtower refers to as "rank and file" publishers.

Then it bottoms out at 0.2% + 2.... Whether it makes any difference when speaking of speculating...To the masses that didn't get it.

[JW Insider]

1 hour ago, DefenderOTT said:

Then it bottoms out at 0.2% + 2.... Whether it makes any difference when speaking of speculating...To the masses that didn't get it.

It might be that low, assuming you don't trust the Watchtower's own reports. But if you're right, it means 98% of us were not obedient when we were asked to speculate in 1968 through 1973. This might give us a better picture of why the WTS brought the subject of 1975 up again, and it might answer @Anna's question about the lesson to be learned. 

Here's what I think it is:

1. The WTS has been highlighting the idea of obedience and following any and all instructions even if asked to follow a course that does not seem reasonable or rational. This idea, spelled out in 2013 below, has been repeated again this year.

*** w13 11/15 p. 20 par. 17 Seven Shepherds, Eight Dukes—What They Mean for Us Today ***

• At that time, the life-saving direction that we receive from Jehovah’s organization may not appear practical from a human standpoint. All of us must be ready to obey any instructions we may receive, whether these appear sound from a strategic or human standpoint or not. (4) Now is the time for any who may be putting their trust in secular education, material things, or human institutions to adjust their thinking.

2. But someone will point out that when asked to follow instructions in the past, such as when we were told to speculate in the late 1960's and early 1970's, many people ended up doing things that were considered wonderful at the time (like selling your home) but irrational upon looking back on that time.

3. To answer this objection, the WTS knew it had to address the 1975 issues again, but remind us that this was the fault of individuals speculating on their own, and not the fault of the WTS.

 

So I'm thinking that some brothers put the 1975 skit together specifically as a way to clear up that particular objection about the past, so that we are better prepared to be obedient without objections in the future. We don't want to be overly concerned with reasonableness. If we feel always tied to a reasonable, practical, sound or strategic instructions, we will need to adjust our thinking because these could be a hindrance to following instructions. Some would say this is similar preparation given to the soldiers in the poem "The Charge of the Light Brigade" by Alfred Tennyson:

   Theirs not to make reply,

   Theirs not to reason why,

   Theirs but to do and die.

 

I'm not saying this is all bad advice. Egos get in the way of progress when one always relies on the absolute best solution. There is paralysis through analysis. Perfect becomes the enemy of good. People who are not humble need to leave well enough alone. But in trying to prepare people for the likely needs during such a time, which is based on speculation anyway, it's probably best to start with reasonable suggestions rather than telling everyone to prepare to follow advice that may sound unreasonable. If you are gong to speculate on what the advice could look like, then speculate on some specific scenarios so people know what you are thinking. Otherwise we are asking for a different type of follower than the ones that Jesus and the apostles asked for.

• (Philippians 4:5-7) 5 Let your reasonableness become known to all men. . . . 6 Do not be anxious over anything, . . .  the peace of God that surpasses all understanding will guard your hearts and your mental powers by means of Christ Jesus.

 

[Anna]

5 hours ago, Gone Fishing said:

18 hours ago, Anna said:

the correct understanding

the "current" understanding is all it can ever be until it has passed, and then we "will know accurately", just as we "are accurately known".

I agree with you implicitly. So do you think when Br. Herd made this statement: "And now we know all about that generation, right?"  (about six minutes into Dec. broadcasting) he was actually being ironic? 

[TrueTomHarley]

1 hour ago, JW Insider said:

All of us must be ready to obey any instructions we may receive, whether these appear sound from a strategic or human standpoint or not

I think they just don't want to find themselves saying something crucial and the sons-in-law of Lot think they are joking.

 

1 hour ago, JW Insider said:

Now is the time for any who may be putting their trust in secular education, material things, or human institutions to adjust their thinking.

I find it hard to quarrel about that (and am not saying that you do).

 

1 hour ago, JW Insider said:

If you are gong to speculate on what the advice could look like, then speculate on some specific scenarios so people know what you are thinking.

I don't think they know themselves, going back to the verse that says they are but brothers and just one is the leader.

I think they look at the likelihood of ISIS walking the same beat with grenades that Officer O'Malihan once walked with his nightstick, and people donning genders as they once donned clothes, and they think the time of decision may soon arrive - best to be prepared.

[Evacuated]

3 hours ago, JW Insider said:

life-saving direction that we receive from Jehovah’s organization

Imagine these statements were made in the 1st Century.

I believe that an example of a life-saving statement then was given by Jesus himself when he said:

"This means everlasting life, their coming to know you, the only true God, and the one whom you sent, Jesus Christ." John 17:3

3 hours ago, JW Insider said:

the life-saving direction that we receive from Jehovah’s organization may not appear practical from a human standpoint.

And to match the fuller quote, note the reaction of some at the time to that same life-saving direction that had come from Jehovah's organisation:

"For the speech about the torture stake is foolishness to those who are perishing, but to us who are being saved, it is God’s power." 1Cor.1:18.

2 hours ago, Anna said:

do you think when Br. Herd made this statement: "And now we know all about that generation, right?"  (about six minutes into Dec. broadcasting) he was actually being ironic? 

I'm not sure ironic is the right word without talking to him. I'm open on that one.

However, (with respect) I get a clear message of "relative unimportance" when it comes to the significance of "generation" debate.

[Noble Berean]

3 hours ago, JW Insider said:

To answer this objection, the WTS knew it had to address the 1975 issues again, but remind us that this was the fault of individuals speculating on their own, and not the fault of the WTS.

What is it then? The organization wants unquestioned loyalty, but when it goofs up that's on individual JWs? You can't have it both ways. It's a contradiction. This isn't the only time that the org plays two sides of the coin.

It's dishonest for the organization to suggest that 1975 enthusiasm was generated by some rank & file JWs. That's the implication from that convention video. Any active JW knows the organization is tightly controlled, and those at the top are in control of the wheel. WT literature promoted 1975 as an end-date and endorsed JWs who sold off property and made life adjustments in expectation of it. JWs who believed in an impending end and made major life adjustments did exactly what the WT encourages JWs to do today: "Listen, Obey, and Be Blessed."

So, what did we learn from the 1975 failure? How is our situation today any different than it was 42 years ago? JWs continue to hang onto the words of the GB like gospel, and that attitude is still promoted in our literature. The GB was wrong about 1975, but ultimately people moved on. But as our time is reduced in this system, our decisions have greater weight, so correct direction matters more.